FALKIRK 1298

Remember when we got gubbed 5 - 1 by England at Wembley in 1975?

Well, my tartan epsilons, that's what I've had to endure over the last 24 hours.

Despite my explicit order to my Head of Wasteland Security to silence those pesky economists at the Institute of Fiscal Studies, we at Project Fib, have just taken a right good hiding.

The IFS have projected three forecasts for my monocratic Scottish Nirvana and even in the best of these scenarios I'll have to increase VAT to 28% or cut public spending by 8% per annum. My deficit will be around £ 10m pa and the interest on my borrowing for my share of the UK national debt will be completely unfeasible unless I hand over all the tax revenue from the dwindling supplies of North Sea Oil. What an indyshambles.

It got worse my friends. Today I had to join my financial Masterchef Big John Swindly in Dundee to present our riposte. It was to be our Bach-like manipulation of the levers and pedals of the Free Calbanian economy.

Now, ordinarily,  when it comes to financial projections Big John is analogous to Gordon Rangers in his culinary skills and so, as I sat in the back of my limousine on the way to Dundee, I was looking forward to something really tasty, something spectacular. Oil revenues escalating to 2150 perhaps; corporation tax at the same rate as my permanently recessioned Celtic brothers in Ireland; a guaranteed index linked pension for Scots who have worked all their years and simply look to an affordable retirement.

And what did I get?

I got a load of twaddle about how we'd have been £ 900 per person better off if we'd been independent in 1997. Well for Willie Wallace's sake Johnny, if Ian St John had been playing up front with Denis Law and Bill Shankly had been managing the team then we wouldn't have got hammered at Wembley in 1975. Any daftie can play that game! I wanted a vision not a backward looking moanfest! That just sounds like sour grapes. The past is over! That oil has gone! I needed a get out. Anything to take the voters' minds off the huge economic price they will have to pay to ensure my personal legacy as the successor to Robert Bruce and William Wallace. Bravebelly, the new Liberator of Scotland.

Well. It didn't happen. We got done good and proper and here I am staring at economic defeat. My financial inadequacies laid bare and my plans in tatters.

Sure, I can always rely on you, my loyal, unquestioning followers. But how do I convince the massive majority of Scots who'd happily see the SNP consigned to political obsolescence?

It has to be the White Paper.

I have to get that right.

THE LUNATIC FRINGE WAGS THE UNDERDOG

Good Evening Minions.

I was sitting in my extensive drawing room in Bute House last night admiring the recent addition of the beautifully painted frog faced chubby cherubs on my ornate ceiling when a rare moment of amour propre was rudely interrupted by my Head of Wasteland Security Joan McAggro. The door nearly flew off the hinges as she stormed into the room.

"Boss, boss, its the pointy heads! They've gone and formed a group called Academics Together and they're dead set against independence." she cried. " They say that in our Free Calbania Scottish institutions could no longer apply for hundreds of millions of UK funding for scientific and medical research that Scottish universities currently receive 13.1 per cent of UK Research Council funding compared to a population share of only 8.4 per cent. We can't stand for this."

"Indeed not my Dear Joan, indeed not." I sighed. "Nor can we match the current UK funding for Scottish universities, but that's a whole different matter."

"Boss." blurts out McAggro. "The party have already organised for Senga McRubbish and that Fife Berserker Nat Wee Davy McRabid to decry these 'supposed Scots'."

"OK Joan. OK. But that just means the press will demand a condemnation of any threats or intimidation by the SNP and our associated loons. Just as they did when they ran Farage out of town. Now that's a problem, because I cannot be seen to criticise my Berserker Nats. I'll have to do my usual and dance around the questions like one of these saft celebs on Strictly Come Dancing."

"So. Boss. What do you want me to do?" came the question.

"Leave it with me." I sighed "That manchild Angus Harmless and the recommendation for our Airfix Defence Force have just blown my option of reducing the £ 2.5bn defence budget to an Irish level of £750m so I'm all out of cash to shut up the Teflon heads. I need time to work on this White Paper. Bloody Hell Joan, all these demands for money to match the status quo and so little of it to hand out when we win this New War of Scottish Independence. I'll be honest Joan, there are times when I wonder why we are bothering. Things are so much easier as they currently stand."

 

PORTALS OF DISCOVERY

Ahoy My Fellow Bravehearts

The inevitable cuts in UK defence spending at Portsmouth and Clydeside have brought more furrows to my proud but troubled brow. These were compounded when my champion for Project Fib announced to the Westminster Pravda that Free Calbania "would want some of these Type 26 frigates. We would want to see sensible joint procurement."

Bloody hell. These ruddy things are £ 350m a pop and with the prospect of cutting Free Calbania's defence budget from £ 2.5bn pa to an Irish equivalent of £ 750m pa then she's just about blown the entire budget.

Time to calm things down I thought. Time to take some time out from the bitter battle for separation that I have so skillfully instigated.

I decided to invite Princess Nicola and Defence Secretary Angus Harmless on to the Royal Yacht Britannia for a spot of dinner and a wee sail up the Forth.

Harmless was first aboard my floating Wolfsschanze with Comrade Nicola in close attendance.

"Wow! Check this out." he gushed.

Harmless was brought up down south and has all the eagerness of a 14 year old in a toy shop. However, he  has a corresponding capacity to grate.

Once he'd finished taking selfies of himself and a torn faced Comrade Nicola,  I ushered them into my dining room for a pre dinner drink.

Eager to waste none of my precious time on smalltalk I came straight to the point.

"Right, Harmless. I want you to draft up a Defence budget of £ 750m as opposed to the £ 2.5bn we currently spend through the Barnett formula."

He lurched forward and spluttered into his champagne sending a sea of froth into the air and up his nose. I could see the tears welling up in Princess Nicola's eyes.

"But Boss, we can't do that. What about the redundancies? What about the soldiers and planes and guns and boats and bases and, and, and .........." he wailed.

I cut him short: "Shut it Harmless. We can't afford it. End of story."

"And what about the Type 26 frigates?" asked Comrade Nicola.

"Well we certainly can't afford them. That's for bloody sure. And anyway, what the bloody hell would Free Calbania want with warships?" I shot back, ensuring she saw just how irked I was about last night's commitment to spend the whole defence budget on warships we'd never use.

"But Boss," continued Harmless. "What are we going to do about defence?"

"Good question boy." I replied, warming to the subject. "First off I want you to set aside £ 50m for the SPG."

"The SPG?" chimed the gormless duo.

"Yes. My Scottish Praetorian Guard. I want 500 of the toughest looking soldiers you can find and swear them in as my personal protection force."

I glowered at the gawping duo and saw their chins drop to the floor in unison. Is that what agog looks like I thought to myself?

"Then I want you to budget for a split new Boeing 777 Dreamliner which is to be called Air Force Alba. Next, and here's the big one, budget for the purchase and refit of this royal yacht.  I'll need to get up and down to those troublesome, oil greedy Shetlanders now and again and so I might as well travel up to the God forsaken place in style. And besides, it will also keep the shipyards open for a wee while longer because there is absolutely no way rUK will be giving Clydeside or Rosyth any work if we win in 2014. "

"Wow" mumbled Harmless "I like that one. That's really good."

"Yes boy." I exclaimed, wiping a tear from my eye. "It is. And that's why I'm the greatest politician of my generation. Now, let's eat. We've got cooked goose on the menu tonight."

SNP BANNED LIST Ongoing

Memo to
Joan McAggro
Head of Wasteland Security
SNP HQ

Dear Joan

Please ensure that this transcript never sees the light of day in our "Cold Water Cuba".

DOUBTING JOCK

Sleep has been a stranger to me this week fellow heroes.

First the double whammy of the CPPR and the IFS exposing the  £ billions of shortfall in Free Calbania's tax revenues. Then someone suggesting that we'd have to cut our annual defence spending from £ 2.5bn to £ 750k to help plug the gap - now that would go down like a rat sandwich with all my friends in the Scottish Armed Forces and cost me thousands of votes from working Scots.

Finally, another pointy head claims that the EU will impose security measures on my New Mediaeval Nirvana such that every poor sod who crosses the border to and from rUK will have to show a passport.

It's times like this that I once again remember Robert the Bruce in his cave watching the spider repeatedly trying to gain a foothold on the wall.

Well sod the bloody spider. I'll just phone Big John and shift £ 800k out of Scottish  Water and into "strategic communications". That should help persuade the 75% of feckless unbelievers that economic recovery is of no importance compared to the chance of allowing the SNP to rule a Free Caledonia for millenia to come.

Just as that little shaft of light flashed across my peerless brain the phone rang.

It was Blind Jock, my good mate from Aberdeenshire.

"Hello Jock." I answered "Are you on to offer a couple of tips on the gee gees? "

"Well no Boss, not exactly"

I didn't like the rather serious tone from my otherwise cheery mate.

"It's just that myself and a few of the boys here in Aberdeenshire are a wee bitty worried about your chances next September." he sheepishly proffered.

"Dinna fash yersel' Jock" I replied in my best fake Doric.

"You see Boss." he continued " You lost 5,000 votes in the Aberdeen Donside by election and then there was a 3,000 vote swing in the by election loss at Dunfermline last week. The bookies are now offering odds on you winning a Yes vote of 5/1 against whilst a No vote is offered at 1/7 on - that's a racing cert! The bookies are also offering the lowest odds (4/9) on a turnout of more than 64% which is at least 14% higher than the 2011 Election and the highest turnout in a Scottish Parliamentary Election since 1999. So much for the undecided vote!"

"I mean, Boss, could it be that 2011 was simply a protest vote by canny Scots voters  who saw a Tory Govt looming and a Labour Party in disarray? Could it be that they weren't remotely interested in your mandate for a referendum but simply wanted a form of Devo Max which is no longer on offer in this referendum?

"Boss.........are we doomed?"

"Now calm down Jock." I soothed "I am the finest politician of my generation and I'll sort this out. The White Paper is out at the end of the month and all the questions will be answered. Let's see what the bookies are saying after that shall we?"

It was the best I could do. Even I know that you don't beat the bookies. Not at those odds. 

WHITE NOISE

I was holding court in Bute House, showing two diplomatic heavyweights from Ireland and Iceland my plans for a Chequers style weekend retreat in Stirling Castle when in barged Big John Swindly.

"Boss" he splurged

"This had better be good John." I replied, with a well practised tone of condescending annoyance.
"My friends here are from the Arc of Insolvency and I'm just showing them my plans for a second home once I'm elected President for Life."

"Boss. There's a problem. A huge stooshie that threatens to completely undermine our White Paper next month." He continued, sweating like Comrade Nicola in a maths test.

"Nonsense John. I've already told the scribes to take out any controversial economic detail and concentrate on nationalist bluster, fictional promises and a few fibs. We'll be fine."

But on he went: "But Glasgow University’s Centre for Public Policy and Regions and the Institute of Fiscal Studies have published reports saying that an independent Scotland would be at least £ 1bn - £2bn per annum worse off than if we were still part of the UK.  They say we'd be losing £ 7bn pa from the Barnett Formula and only gaining £ 5bn - £ 6bn pa from the projected North Sea Oil revenues. No Scot in their right mind would vote for that! It would be like turkeys voting for Christmas."

I raised my eyes to the heavens, at the same time noting the elaborate gilded cornicing in my beloved Bute House. Maybe the addition of some suitably chubby, frog faced cherubs might enhance the ceiling, I thought to myself, before replying to this tedious drivel:

"We already knew that John. We've always known that the oil is depleting and can't substitute the Barnett Formula tax revenues from the UK beyond 2015. We just can't tell anyone. That's why I've got wee Comrade Nicola operating Project Fib. Make a few headline promises on benefit increases and hope the proletariat don't ask too many questions."

"But Boss," he continued " it's all very well to assume that our economically myopic freedom fighters will swallow anything we say, but 75% of Scots are unconvinced. They want to hear the economic facts."

"Well they can't and they won't." I snapped. "We can't win over the Scottish people with the truth. We can't ask them to swap the stable tax revenues of the balanced UK economy for a smaller economy based on a single, declining and highly volatile resource. We can't tell them that, as the oil continues to decline, we'll have to implement more and more increases in council tax, income tax and property tax. Nor can we tell them about our £ 14bn annual deficit and the doubling of sovereign debt costs or about the inevitable cuts in public services and welfare."

"None of that actually matters John. All that matters is that we will be in power."

"Now be a good lad and close the door on the way out. I've still to show the boys my plans for a statue of myself alongside Robert the Bruce at Bannockburn."

SNP BANNED LIST Ongoing

Memo to
Dear Joan McAggro
Head of Wasteland Security
SNP HQ
Free Calbania

My Dear Joan

Please add the following traitors to your ever expanding 2016 Deportation List:

1. The Institute of Fiscal Studies

For daring to publish the following:

The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) found that an independent Scotland would face about £2.5bn spending cuts or tax rises over 2016-17 and 2018-19 if Scottish ministers followed the spending course set out by the UK government.
The IFS suggested that the debt inherited by a Scottish Government would make it difficult for Scotland to plot a different fiscal course than the cuts in public spending pencilled in by the UK government over the next few years.
The UK government has forecast cuts to public service spending totalling 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2016-17 and 2017-18 – and in Scotland that would be the equivalent of £2.5bn.
On top of that, the IFS report suggested that under declines in North Sea oil revenues forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility, Scotland’s budget deficit could be 2.2 per cent further into the red than the UK as a whole in 2017-18.
The report said that to fill this hole would require a further £3.4bn of tax rises or spending cuts on top of the £2.5bn that would be required to follow UK spending plans.


2. The entire population of Dunfermline

For being "unpatriotic" by voting in a Labour candidate with a swing of 3000 votes just one week after my magnificent call to Freedom.


3. The entire population of Helensburgh

They'll all be wanting compensation and benefits when I shut down Faslane and Comrade Nicola doesn't have the budget to pay them so best to ship the lot of them off to Portsmouth with the submarines.

4. Gavin McCrone - economist

For daring to print the following about my inability to create an Oil Fund:

The inconvenient truth is that although Scottish onshore tax revenue is approximately equal to the UK average, public expenditure per head is over £1,000 higher. So tax revenue without the income from the North Sea would not cover present expenditure, if Scotland was relying on its own resources. In order to pay the oil revenues into a special fund, therefore, the onshore revenue and expenditure would need to be brought into balance either with a substantial cut in expenditure on top of the present cuts or by raising onshore taxes. 


5. Alan Cochrane - journalist

For daring to speak for the dignified majority.


Finally, no mention whatsoever should be made about Grangemouth. The whole incident exposed the fact that we politicians are virtually powerless in the face of big business and had to "pull together" in order to have the merest of influences on Ineos. Even if I get to be Life President of Free Calbania then there will be nothing I could do to stop banks, oil companies, fund managers or any other private enterprise scaling down or closing their Scottish operations.

No one must know this...........and, er, forget I ever used the phrase "pull together".

Many Thanks

Your Glorious Leader

Bravebelly
c/o Presidential Suite
Gleneagles Hotel