WHITE NOISE

I was holding court in Bute House, showing two diplomatic heavyweights from Ireland and Iceland my plans for a Chequers style weekend retreat in Stirling Castle when in barged Big John Swindly.

"Boss" he splurged

"This had better be good John." I replied, with a well practised tone of condescending annoyance.
"My friends here are from the Arc of Insolvency and I'm just showing them my plans for a second home once I'm elected President for Life."

"Boss. There's a problem. A huge stooshie that threatens to completely undermine our White Paper next month." He continued, sweating like Comrade Nicola in a maths test.

"Nonsense John. I've already told the scribes to take out any controversial economic detail and concentrate on nationalist bluster, fictional promises and a few fibs. We'll be fine."

But on he went: "But Glasgow University’s Centre for Public Policy and Regions and the Institute of Fiscal Studies have published reports saying that an independent Scotland would be at least £ 1bn - £2bn per annum worse off than if we were still part of the UK.  They say we'd be losing £ 7bn pa from the Barnett Formula and only gaining £ 5bn - £ 6bn pa from the projected North Sea Oil revenues. No Scot in their right mind would vote for that! It would be like turkeys voting for Christmas."

I raised my eyes to the heavens, at the same time noting the elaborate gilded cornicing in my beloved Bute House. Maybe the addition of some suitably chubby, frog faced cherubs might enhance the ceiling, I thought to myself, before replying to this tedious drivel:

"We already knew that John. We've always known that the oil is depleting and can't substitute the Barnett Formula tax revenues from the UK beyond 2015. We just can't tell anyone. That's why I've got wee Comrade Nicola operating Project Fib. Make a few headline promises on benefit increases and hope the proletariat don't ask too many questions."

"But Boss," he continued " it's all very well to assume that our economically myopic freedom fighters will swallow anything we say, but 75% of Scots are unconvinced. They want to hear the economic facts."

"Well they can't and they won't." I snapped. "We can't win over the Scottish people with the truth. We can't ask them to swap the stable tax revenues of the balanced UK economy for a smaller economy based on a single, declining and highly volatile resource. We can't tell them that, as the oil continues to decline, we'll have to implement more and more increases in council tax, income tax and property tax. Nor can we tell them about our £ 14bn annual deficit and the doubling of sovereign debt costs or about the inevitable cuts in public services and welfare."

"None of that actually matters John. All that matters is that we will be in power."

"Now be a good lad and close the door on the way out. I've still to show the boys my plans for a statue of myself alongside Robert the Bruce at Bannockburn."

SNP BANNED LIST Ongoing

Memo to
Dear Joan McAggro
Head of Wasteland Security
SNP HQ
Free Calbania

My Dear Joan

Please add the following traitors to your ever expanding 2016 Deportation List:

1. The Institute of Fiscal Studies

For daring to publish the following:

The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) found that an independent Scotland would face about £2.5bn spending cuts or tax rises over 2016-17 and 2018-19 if Scottish ministers followed the spending course set out by the UK government.
The IFS suggested that the debt inherited by a Scottish Government would make it difficult for Scotland to plot a different fiscal course than the cuts in public spending pencilled in by the UK government over the next few years.
The UK government has forecast cuts to public service spending totalling 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2016-17 and 2017-18 – and in Scotland that would be the equivalent of £2.5bn.
On top of that, the IFS report suggested that under declines in North Sea oil revenues forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility, Scotland’s budget deficit could be 2.2 per cent further into the red than the UK as a whole in 2017-18.
The report said that to fill this hole would require a further £3.4bn of tax rises or spending cuts on top of the £2.5bn that would be required to follow UK spending plans.


2. The entire population of Dunfermline

For being "unpatriotic" by voting in a Labour candidate with a swing of 3000 votes just one week after my magnificent call to Freedom.


3. The entire population of Helensburgh

They'll all be wanting compensation and benefits when I shut down Faslane and Comrade Nicola doesn't have the budget to pay them so best to ship the lot of them off to Portsmouth with the submarines.

4. Gavin McCrone - economist

For daring to print the following about my inability to create an Oil Fund:

The inconvenient truth is that although Scottish onshore tax revenue is approximately equal to the UK average, public expenditure per head is over £1,000 higher. So tax revenue without the income from the North Sea would not cover present expenditure, if Scotland was relying on its own resources. In order to pay the oil revenues into a special fund, therefore, the onshore revenue and expenditure would need to be brought into balance either with a substantial cut in expenditure on top of the present cuts or by raising onshore taxes. 


5. Alan Cochrane - journalist

For daring to speak for the dignified majority.


Finally, no mention whatsoever should be made about Grangemouth. The whole incident exposed the fact that we politicians are virtually powerless in the face of big business and had to "pull together" in order to have the merest of influences on Ineos. Even if I get to be Life President of Free Calbania then there will be nothing I could do to stop banks, oil companies, fund managers or any other private enterprise scaling down or closing their Scottish operations.

No one must know this...........and, er, forget I ever used the phrase "pull together".

Many Thanks

Your Glorious Leader

Bravebelly
c/o Presidential Suite
Gleneagles Hotel

PROJECT FIB

Well wee Princess Nicola has taken to my fibbin' strategy like a jakey to the Buckie.

Much to my delight, my wee comrade had the bottle to stand up in front of the massed ranks of Freedom Dreamers at my little Bamberg Gathering in Perth and promise to remove certain green charges from power bills so they were an average of £70 per year lower. Obviously she didn't mention that average bills in a Free Calbania would have to increase by around £875 per year after independence because Scottish households would have to pay wind farm subsidies currently spread across the whole UK.

I really didn't need the pointy heads at the David Hume Institute or Citigroup to point out this inevitable price hike but fair play to Nicola the Naive. She was limited in her application of economic facts to the truth.

Not only that my friends, she then put the icing on the cake by launching her very own Project Feart,  claiming that the Westminster junta would “turn the screw",  “dismantle Scotland’s social security system” and “cut Scotland’s budget” if Scots voted No.

Magic, pure factually baseless mince but magic nonetheless.

Of course, the castrati in Perth shrilled with approval.

Not to be outdone by Comrade Nicola, I then topped the show by filling their unpolished minds with a speech in which I left the awkward issue of economic reality to one side and appealed to base nationalism and a desire for self determination at all costs.

It went down a treat.

Afterwards, as my limousine whisked me back to my HQ at the suitably prestigious Gleneagles Hotel, I got a call from Dear Joan McAggro, my Head of Wasteland Security. She was still in Perth arming the unthinking with Yes badges.

"Oh Great Bravebelly" she cooed, " I swear you could convince Texans to vote for independence from the USA. You really are that good. We're on our way to Free Calbania and I cannae wait! Thank you so much."

I sat back in the limo and smiled.

A free Texas. Why not? Look at the parallels. To hell with all the benefits of a successful Union and federal system. They've got oil, attitude and the Alamo. We've got a wee bit of oil, a barrel load of fibs and Bannockburn. And me of course.

"Do you know Joan. I actually think I could. Now get off the phone and get back to handing out the badges. Don't forget, we are way behind in the polls and if the quiet majority actually go out and vote next September then we will be consigned to the dustbin of history."

DAVID AND GOLIATH

Now it's been said in some quarters that I am a weak debater. That I compensate for my lack of intellectual sharpness by reverting to personal insults, deflection and, if absolutely necessary, terminological inexactitude.

Well we shall see about that.

My senior advisers are concerned, and in order to allay their fears, my press office decided to invite one of those pimple faced 16 year old No voters to Bute House to discuss the referendum. He had won a schools debating competition in Aberdeen and I thought he'd make excellent sport in front of a select band of supine journos and the usual entourage of my party lackeys.

Two of my burly new security men ushered the lad into my extravagantly furnished morning room where I awaited his arrival on my favourite Louis XVI chair.

"Well good morning laddie." I cried, dropping my Racing Post on the foot stool and trying to muster as much sincerity as possible.

"Good morning Mr Bravebelly." the boy replied. "I'm David. Nice to meet you."

Begrudgingly I shook the little urchin's hand.

"Yes. Of course." I replied. "Anyway, help yourself to the all day buffet" gesturing towards the food laden table in the corner.

"I'm fine thank you" the boy replied "By the way, I do like your tartan trews. They look very smart."

"Well thank you son. They bloody well should do. I've just had to stump up £ 250 for them. Never trust the press son. Never trust the press.

"Anyway, young David, I understand that you don't agree with my crusade to free Scotland from English chains and thus give me, er sorry, Scots the chance to define their own economic and social future. Are you mad boy? Are you English or are you simply thick?"

I glanced at my press officers and noticed the smirks of approval on their faces. This was going to be too easy.

"Well Mr Bravebelly, I simply don't understand how you can claim that giving up our partnership in the UK £ in favour of a subservient currency relationship with rUK in any way represents independence. Simple logic states that you are proposing to swap financial partnership and ownership for dependence on the currency partner you are divorcing."

A slight wobble shivered through my jowels as I fixed my eye on this wretch.

"Well, you see son, when I win freedom for Scotland, rUK will be forced to give me the currency arrangements that suit me. I'll be the leader of a nation state and they'll have to do what I say."

"Well that's not true, is it Mr Bravebelly?" replied the boy. "Only last week Ed Balls came out and said that a Labour government would most likely not allow you to share the £ in the event of a Yes vote. George Osborne has said the same thing. They would not underwrite your need to borrow £ 7bn per year and so the bond markets would only lend to you at rates equating to twice what we pay now. Moreover, long standing sources of tax revenues such as RBS, Lloyds/HBOS and the fund managers would relocate their HQs to London almost instantly. It would be capital flight on a massive scale, decimating the financial industry in Scotland."

I could barely suppress another wobble.

"Oh, I see laddie" I blurted out "It's Project Fear is it. Negatives. Negatives. Negatives. Is that all you've got son?"

"No Mr Bravebelly." replied young David, sensing the unease in his much larger opponent. "These are the clearly stated intentions of the very individuals who will assume 100% control over your preferred currency, the rUK £. They are saying that your financial relationship with rUK will be one of a complete and utter dependent. We would be on a worse footing than Greece. These are facts to be fearful of for sure. But facts they remain"

"Listen here, you squirt. We've got shed loads of oil and I'm erecting wind farms quicker than Glasgow Rangers are burning cash. In terms of commercial credibility we've got support from Monaco Jim, a bloke with some care homes and two lottery winners. My cabinet is bristling with O grades and I have the unquestioning support of every amoeba minded Scot with a chip on their shoulder. That's a heady cocktail son."

"Well it sounds like one that would give you and your fellow countrymen a vicious hangover for generations and probably explains why only 25% of Scots support your campaign" fired back the boy David. " And by the way Mr Bravebelly, what are your public sector spending plans for 2016 - 2050? What tax increases will you be budgeting for over that timescale and what do you intend to do once North Sea oil is exhausted in 2050?"

"Get him out of here!" I yelled, wobbling uncontrollably.

Two security men grabbed the boy, but he continued:

"Can you guarantee that my generation will have the same easy access to employment in London in the unlikely event that your resentful and messy divorce from rUK goes through in 2014?"

"Now!" I exploded, plunging a fist into a plate of Greggs sausage rolls and scattering the attendant lackeys.

Still the questions came:

"Is it true that an independent Scotland will decrease its tax take by up to £ 2bn per annum and more each year as the oil runs out ?"

"Aaargh!" the veins on my neck resembled the pipework at Grangemouth at full production. "I ... will not ..... be questioned .... like this!"

Finally the questions faded as the security guards hauled the wee git down the corridor and huckled him out of the building.

Princess Nicola started crying and the rest of them fled from the room.

"If that's what the majority of Scots think then we are doomed." she proffered, meekly.

I slumped back into my chair.

"Oh for God's sake stop greetin' woman. That boy doesn't speak for Scotland. I do. And don't forget it."