THE THEORY OF COULD

All is most definitely for the best and an independent Scotland will indeed be the best of all possible worlds.  A veritable El Dorado where we could limit our share of the UK national debt, could have money to burn for public sector spending and could even get a rebate on the last 30 years of oil and gas taxation.

That is the conclusion of Big John Swindly's latest culinary masterpiece.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22134809

The big man has really excelled himself. It's deliciously ambitious.

So how does he do it? How does he cook up these sublime economic delights?

Well, he simply selects certain years where the volatile oil revenues peaked and the UK public sector  accounts were coincidentally particularly bleak. In this case 2007 - 2008 and 20011 -2012. He then changes the basis on which our share of the UK national debt is attributed and, as the icing on the cake, invents a scenario where we get a rebate from Westminster for the last 30 years of UK tax revenues.

Well, why not? It's all speculation anyway isn't it? In the absence of facts our job is to look at things as optimistically as possible. It's all about hope over reason my friends. That is how nations are born.

So, what next from this economic titan, this Scottish Pangloss? Well, brethren, on the basis of Big John's "Theory of Could" analysis anything might be possible. Anything at all. Take your pick from these equally valid conclusions from "The Theory of Could".


Sport
Looking only at our performance in the 1974 and 1978 World Cups one concludes that Scotland could win the World Cup in 2018.

Industry
Analysing the shipping industry in the years 1945 -1955 we see no reason why a world beating ship building industry could not be thriving on the Clyde.

Transport
If you look at public sector transport projections in 2005 then Edinburgh could have a comprehensive tram system built and running, on budget and on time, by 2011.

Oil
Ignoring the fact that UK oil peaked in 1999 and is in terminal decline then Scotland could indeed be a new El Dorado.

Great fun isn't it?